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“Invading Ukraine would risk the collapse of Vladimir Putin’s regime. He already faces the most persistent street opposition of his tenure, this might well bring thousands into the streets – for sanity, for Navalny, and more. It would all merge and be Putin’s worst nightmare. Ukraine’s military would exact a steep cost from any invading forces. And after the apparent unmasking of a coup plot, Russian psy-ops would have little chance of establishing a plausible rationale to his domestic audience for the deaths of thousands of soldiers.
Dr. Schmidt is an expert on Russia and wrote one of the most widely-cited articles on the government’s philosophy called “Eurasianism” focusing on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic thinking. He was appointed a member of the U.S. election monitoring delegation to the Ukrainian presidential election in 2014, following the Maidan revolution.
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